Robert Kopal and Darija Korkut

Workshop description: The rationale for the workshop is as follows: (1) security expert's forecasting and predictions are too often wrong – and too often experts are making fallacies or mistaken inferences and succumb to faulty reasoning.; (2) long-term study has shown that too much knowledge can have an adverse effect on the accuracy of prediction (for example the expert forecast accuracy in foreign affairs is about 35%); (3) experts are human and "to err is human" – and being expert in certain field is not the same as being a critical thinker (4) most of the intelligence failures (by experts) have common denominators: extinct by instinct; expert blindness; overestimation; underestimation; over-confidence; subordination of intelligence to policy; lack of communication; unavailability of information; received opinion; mirror-imaging; complacency/smugness; failure to connect the dots, etc.

All these issues can be solved with the appropriate intelligence analysis approach integrated into cybersecurity.

But there are some challenges regarding cyber threat intelligence (CTI): 85% of security professionals believe their CTI program requires too many manual processes; 82% of security professionals agree that CTI programs are often treated as academic exercises; 72% of security professionals believe that it is hard to sort through CTI noise to find what’s relevant for their organizations; 71% of security professionals say it is difficult for their organizations to measure ROI on its CTI program; 63% of security professionals say that their organization doesn’t have the right staff or skills to manage an appropriate CTI program (Research Report: Cyber-threat Intelligence (CTI) Programs: Ubiquitous and Immature).

Another recent survey of 1,350 IT and business leaders, representing organizations with 1,000 or more employees across 13 countries (released by Mandiant) uncovers additional CTI challenges: 79% of the surveyed leaders said that “the majority of the time, they make decisions without adversary insights" because "organizations feel they have too much threat intelligence information coming in through their feeds — and they aren’t able to sift through it effectively enough to have it influence their decisions". Furthermore, 47% of surveyed leaders reported that “applying threat intelligence throughout the security organization” is among their biggest challenges.

The aim of the workshop is to explore benefits of applying intelligence analysis techniques in various cyber scenarios, including cyber attribution challenges, to help organizations gain a complete picture of an attack and enhance their cybersecurity strategy for the future.

Analysis of competing hypothesis is one such technique. It’s a structured analytic technique commonly used in cyber threat intelligence. As its name indicates, it is used to determine the most likely hypothesis among several, simultaneously comparing multiple hypotheses against a given range of evidence.

It can be effectively used in the analysis phase of the cyber threat intelligence cycle to bring the clarity and objectivity, making it easier to analyze complex situations.

THE MOST DILLIGENT PARTICIPANT WILL BE AWARDED THE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS BOOK AUTHORED BY KOPAL AND KORKUT!

If you are already registered for the conference, you can book your place by an email to info@deep-conference.com.

Duration: 90 minutes

Trainers: Associate Professor Robert Kopal, PhD; Darija Korkut

Trainers’ bio:

Robert Kopal, Ph.D., Associate Professor; Senior Research Associate; Tenured University College Professor; Chairman of the Board at EFFECTUS University of Applied Sciences.

Professional and scientific experience: Special Advisor to the Prime Minister for National Security; Acting minister & State Secretary at Ministry of the Interior; Chief Intelligence Analyst at Ministry of the Interior and Senior Manager at the Security and Intelligence Agency; 3x Dean Effectus University College for Law and Finance; Vice Dean for R&D at Algebra University College and Head of the professional master study programs of Digital Marketing and Data Science; Vice Dean for Academic Affairs at Libertas International University; Lecturer and visiting lecturer at numerous university colleges in Croatia and abroad and at CROMA EduCare Programme (Croatian Managers and Entrepreneurs Association); R&D Executive Director at Tokić; Advisor of the Board at IN2 Group for R&D/Science Advisor; Chief Science Officer at IN2data; Author of 13 books published in Croatia and abroad (Intelligence Analysis; Game Theory, Competitive/Business Intelligence Analysis Techniques, Analytical Management, Economic Analysis of International Terrorism, etc.); Author of a number of chapters in books and of about 70+ professional and scientific papers in Croatia and abroad; Head of, and lecturer at over a hundred business and analytical workshops in Croatia and abroad (trained intelligence & law enforcement officers from 11 countries); Head of PIU & Key Expert: “CARDS Twinning project: Criminal Intelligence System, Phase 1&2” te Project Liaison Officer na UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime) projektu “Strengthening of Capacities for Collection and Analysis of Criminal Intelligence in South-eastern Europe”; 2 UNODC commendations; Designed several specialized IT systems; certified intelligence analysis techniques and intelligence analysis software trainer; Member of IALEIA (International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts) and BDVA (Big Data Value Association); Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Digital Technology and Economy and member of the editorial board of the International Journal of Economics &; Management Sciences; Speaker at various national and international conferences; Participant and head of multiple national and international analytical projects; Member of the Agency for Science and Higher Education Commission for Social Sciences; Member of the National Council for the Development of Human Potential; Member of National Cyber Security Council; Member of the Croatian national team - European Big Data Hackathon 2017, which won the 1st prize, etc.; Penultimate book Analytical management has won 2 awards and the last book is Intelligence Analysis; Karate 2nd Dan black belt.

Darija Korkut, Senior Lecturer, doctoral student of Information Society at the Faculty of Information Studies in Novo Mesto, Slovenia. She was working at the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs, as an information and analysis officer, and as a diplomat at the Croatian Embassy in Dublin. In her 10-year experience at the Security Intelligence Agency she was working on analytical education and training, and the development of innovative technological solutions. In January 2019, she joined University College Effectus, where she teaches Analytical Management, Critical Thinking, Behavioral Economics, Psychology of Decision Making, and Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty. Darija has co-authored eight books, and a number of professional and scientific papers on analytical management, game theory, social network analysis, creativity, and behavioral economics. Her latest book, co-authored with Robert Kopal, covers the area of intelligence analysis in both, corporate and security intelligence application. She has participated in numerous domestic and international courses, seminars, and conferences in the field of international relations and diplomacy, and various analytical courses and workshops (NATO, US EUCOM, FBI among other), and as a lecturer at many of those. She owns international certificates in structured analytical techniques and critical thinking. Areas of interest: creativity and innovation, critical thinking, problem solving, behavioral economics, social network analysis, game theory, intelligence analysis, analytical management.

Categorised in: 2023

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